Good morning and welcome to COVID Transmissions.
It has been 437 days since the first documented human case of COVID-19.
Some headlines today regarding the safety of vaccines in various populations.
As usual, bolded terms are linked to the running newsletter glossary.
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Now, let’s talk COVID.
New daily cases dropping in many countries; spiking in others
CIDRAP has a rundown of the global situation regarding trends in new daily cases here: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/01/cases-drop-main-global-pandemic-hot-spots-surge-elsewhere
Key hot spots like the US and Europe are seeing sharp declines in new daily cases. I will note that these happen to be majority Christian areas, and that we are now weeks out from the end of the Christmas holidays, so that may be playing a part.
However, it might not be. We are seeing new case spikes in certain parts of the Americas, which are typically majority Christian as well.
We are also seeing some jumps at the country level in Europe. Specifically, Spain, Portugal, and France saw jumps in new daily cases.
I think these country-level data can be interesting, but let’s keep in mind that this virus doesn’t transmit across hundreds of miles. It spreads locally, over a matter of feet. When you look at these country-level numbers, remember to check your local numbers. They’re going to matter more for you.
Pregnancy and COVID-19 vaccines
I’ve answered some questions here before about this, but I wanted to share this article with you.
Dr. Akiko Iwasaki, a star immunologist from Yale University, has written a piece for the New York Times that debunks myths about COVID-19 vaccines during pregnancy. Have a look: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/opinion/covid-vaccine-rumors.html
Fresh data on anaphylactic reactions to COVID-19 vaccines
Essentially straight from the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), we have this slide on anaphylactic reactions to the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines:
There’s a lot that’s interesting to see here. For one thing, these reactions happened almost exclusively in female patients, and all in age groups between their mid-20s and mid-60s. I have no idea why that would be, but it is interesting.
What really jumps out at me that I can explain, though, is that these reactions tended to appear early after the injection (a median of 10 minutes for both vaccines), and usually on the first dose—by far. Overwhelmingly, all of the patients had a documented history of allergic reactions.
These reactions are still relatively rare (something like 5 in 1 million), but based on this I feel confident that a short monitoring period after receiving the vaccine is a good method to screen for such reactions. If they do happen during that time, then you have a medical staff present who can administer an epi-pen to stop the reaction.
Seeing these data makes me feel pretty confident that even this rare and serious reaction is manageable.
What am I doing to cope with the pandemic? This:
Cooking: Movie Theater Popcorn
I kind of miss going to the movies. I miss the huge screen, kicking back to see something for the first time, and spending some time justifiably unreachable by cell phone.
Also, I kind of liked being able to have some popcorn. But that, dear readers, is a solvable problem. As it turns out, you can make movie theater-quality popcorn at home. It just takes industrial-strength ingredients.
Specifically, there is a product called Flavacol® that is a seasoning salt for popcorn best used in small doses. It’s sold in quart volumes, but a teaspoon is enough for one cup of unpopped corn kernels.
It contains fine-grained salt, artificial colors, and artificial butter flavors. Yes, it has a bunch of chemicals, but there’s really nothing that simulates this particular proprietary blend. It’s also kosher- and halal-certified.
Basically, this can be done at home with 1 teaspoon of Flavacol for every cup of popcorn kernels. Mix all ingredients with 1-3 tablespoons of an oil that can handle high temperatures, and put it over medium heat, covered with a lid that lets steam escape (you can use aluminum foil with holes in it, that works too). You can get brands of oil that have additional “movie theater” flavor, too. I recommend using a pan that lets the popcorn kernels sit only 1 kernel deep, and that lets the oil spread out so they’re not totally submerged.
When the kernels start to pop, you have to get active with it. Keep them moving around by shaking the pan (be careful about this!), which will help you distribute the flavacol. When the popping slows to become infrequent, turn off the heat and transfer it to a bowl. This really works! It tastes exactly like what you’d find at a movie theater.
I wouldn’t recommend making this every day, but it’s pretty cool on a special occasion.
By the way, I have about a quart of flavacol if anyone wants some.
Carl Fink—I’ve heard some suggestions I should give Carl his own column :) — had a comment today:
I'm going to try inline HTML here. If it doesn't work, sorry about the visible tags you might see.
<blockquote>On the other hand, this illustrates how fantastically lucky we are to have discovered 3—and potentially almost 4—vaccines that work for this.</blockquote>
So ... you're discounting 100% of the Russian, Chinese and Indian vaccines now being injected into millions of people as unproven at best, worthless at worst?
I think this is an interesting point. And really, I’m glad you comment so regularly, Carl. It makes sure there’s something to put here, and I like any opportunity to answer questions.
Here’s how I replied to this:
I don't think they've been demonstrated to work effectively. I hope they do! But The trials for these products are not yet completed and I continue to find their use dubious from a scientific and ethical standpoint.
The vaccines most advanced in development in China, India, and Russia have not adequately reported data from large Phase 3 trials to make me feel comfortable with saying they work. They might, but it’s not there yet. I don’t think it’s right for them to be used widely without that.
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See you all next time.
Always,
JS