Good morning! It has been 409 days since the first documented human case of COVID-19.
Today, I further discuss the UK variant which has now appeared in the US.
As usual, bolded terms are linked to the running newsletter glossary.
Normally I would address this in the “Talk back” section, but on yesterday’s issue, Carl Fink asked me something that I think makes sense to address up here at the top:
John, a tiny suggestion ... if you mention supporting the newsletter(Is that what you call this?) maybe have a link somewhere on the page to how to support it?
I’m really grateful to Carl for wanting to help make this newsletter work and grow. It means a lot. However, monetary support (while very much appreciated!) is not my chief aim in this work. Therefore, here is what I said:
Hi Carl--I'm fairly actively trying not to solicit paid subscriptions. Anyone who wants to support it monetarily is welcome to do so, but this isn't an effort I'm doing to make money. I see this as a public good and the generosity of those who are paid subscribers helps offset my time investment and helps me to increase the production value of the work. I've intentionally not pushed out a link for how to convert to a paid subscription for that reason.
However, I do encourage supporting the newsletter by sharing the signup link with everyone and anyone you think might have the slightest interest. The link to do that is at the top of the newsletter every day :)
I really, genuinely believe this. What’s important to me is that good information reaches a wider audience. Having some extra dollars for the time spent, and to improve the overall quality of graphics, etc., is nice and definitely helps me to make this work. I really value and appreciate it.
But, at the end of the day, I do this to make sure good information gets to a wider audience. I really think that can save lives and help people. That’s why this share button is here. That’s why I have it here every day. If you want to show your support, please tell everyone you know that this exists, and tell them how they can sign up for it.
Keep the newsletter growing by sharing it! I love talking about science and explaining important concepts in human health, but I rely on all of you to grow the audience for this:
Now, let’s talk COVID.
UK variant reported in the US
A patient in Colorado has been identified as having the UK variant that we’ve been talking about here a few times now. This means that somehow the UK variant got to this patient in Colorado, so we can be sure that it is more widespread in the US than just this one patient.
Since yesterday’s newsletter, I have been asked by a reader to expand on what evidence there is that this variant is more transmissible. Well, I can’t really do that. There really isn’t any reliable evidence that this variant is more transmissible. There was a statement by UK health authorities claiming that it is more contagious, but no real evidence has been forthcoming. A mathematical model that has not been peer reviewed was held up in The New York Times as evidence of enhanced transmission, but unreviewed mathematical modeling really isn’t reliable evidence. I have seen no experimental data. I spent a good amount of time today trying to see if any additional evidence had appeared, but no luck.
Ultimately, it’s as I said yesterday: this variant might be more transmissible. What this means is that in a situation where there would be some fixed chance of transmission, let’s call that chance X%, this variant may have an (X+C)% chance of transmission, where C is some constant. If, for example, there is an X=10% chance that an interaction with an infected person will infect you, then the chance with the new variant is 10+C%. This is all that “more transmissible” means. We don’t know what “C” is. C might be zero. This all needs to be studied further.
However, “more transmissible” does not mean that the virus has some new way of transmitting. It does not mean that there is some way to defeat masks or jump farther distances. And, I’ll reiterate, we don’t even have real evidence that it is more transmissible at all.
A technical report from Public Health England (available here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948152/Technical_Briefing_VOC202012-2_Briefing_2_FINAL.pdf ) has confirmed the following:
The variant has no increased severity in cases seen to date
The variant has no escape from existing immunity in cases seen to date
This technical report does contain some potential evidence of enhanced transmissibility. Specifically, of about 228,000 contacts of positive patients included in the analysis, about 9.9% of contacts became COVID-19 positive. 9.8% of contacts of people with “traditional” SARS-CoV-2 infection became COVID-19 cases, while about 15% of contacts of people with the new variant became COVID-19 cases.
This is such a small increase in the likelihood of transmission that I cannot be sure that it is real. No statistical analyses have been done to determine if it is a real increase. Even if it is a real difference, it may be because the variant is currently spreading in areas with higher population density, so it is benefiting from a geographic advantage. Still, even assuming it is real, this is a small increase in transmissibility.
At the current time, you just need to keep doing what you were doing before—avoiding going out for nonessential trips, wearing a mask when you go out around other people, and maintaining a distance of at least 6 feet from others at all times. That’s the way that we reduce spread of any variant of this virus, and that hasn’t changed.
As we learn more, I’ll continue to provide updates.
What am I doing to cope with the pandemic? This:
Watching: The Expanse
The Expanse is a series about the colonization of the solar system and the political dynamics of the powers that emerge after that happens. It is based on books written by James SA Corey, an author who is actually two people writing under a pen name for their collaboration.
I’ve found the TV series to mix a lot of the best elements of modern science fiction with a genuine message about independence and humanity that is quite appealing. I think it also is a bit reassuring to see an interplanetary future where live can be unforgiving, but people still manage to get by. We currently live in a planetary present where this is the case, and I think this vision of future has a lot to say about our current world.
The fifth season just came out on Amazon Prime. It has been excellent throughout. You may enjoy it.
You might have some questions or comments! Send them in. As several folks have figured out, you can also email me if you have a comment that you don’t want to share with the whole group.
After reading responses about the frequency of the newsletter, I’ve decided that I won’t be making major modifications to the schedule. In January, I may be changing the schedule such that the Wednesday issue is sent to paid subscribers only, to recognize their support for this project. The other 4 issues a week will continue to go to everyone. Whether I make this change or not, I plan to continue to write this newsletter 5 days a week.
Join the conversation, and what you say will impact what I talk about in the next issue.
Also, let me know any other thoughts you might have about the newsletter. I’d like to make sure you’re getting what you want out of this.
Part of science is identifying and correcting errors. If you find a mistake, please tell me about it.
Though I can’t correct the emailed version after it has been sent, I do update the online post of the newsletter every time a mistake is brought to my attention.
No corrections since last issue.
See you all next time. Happy holidays!
Always,
JS
is there any hope left at all?
I am in such despair at this point. I miss everyone. I miss hugging and being able to play board games in person and getting coffee and having a job. My whole family works in the arts, and we are drowning. The vaccines aren't rolling out fast enough. No one in the US is willing to give the aid we need to shut down, and even if we had it no one has the guts to actually enforce the kind of complete shutdown we need to stop this. I feel we are looking at soon having a mutation that the vaccine won't work against and never being able to do anything ever again. Endless isolation until society collapses. I'm so tired.