COVID Transmissions for 6-4-2021
UK has a new dominant variant; announcement of new schedule
Greetings from an undisclosed location in my apartment. Welcome to COVID Transmissions.
It has been 565 days since the first documented human case of COVID-19.
Today I need to make an announcement. I will be changing this newsletter to a Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule. New responsibilities at work, combined with a general slowing of the pace of COVID-19 news stories, have made it so that the daily schedule no longer makes sense. I don’t want any issue of this newsletter to be a throwaway, or to find myself putting in a lower effort because I am spread too thinly. Lately I have felt pushed increasingly towards both of those things, so I would like to consolidate so that I can improve the content quality.
Today I have stories on a new variant dominant in the UK as well as another TWiV episode to share with you, again on the origins of SARS-CoV-2.
Bolded terms are linked to the running newsletter glossary.
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Now, let’s talk COVID.
B.1.617.2 variant causing issues in the UK
The UK government has reshuffled its travel approval list, effectively tightening its borders, at the same time that Public Health England has issued a report that the B.1.617.2 variant has become dominant there, causing 75% of infections.
The PHE report indicated, in a very preliminary way, that the risk of hospitalization for people with that variant was more than twice as high as the previously dominant B.1.1.7 variant. That’s not great news. It’s also not clear if it represents a real effect, but it makes sense to be concerned. Hospital utilization, and keeping it below what would “break” the healthcare system, has been the major public health challenge in the pandemic.
However I don’t really understand what tightening incoming travel does when this concerning variant is already dominant. A lot of countries have made moves like this and they don’t make a lot of sense. Tightening borders won’t control what’s happening inside those borders very well at all, and the UK is still planning a wide reopening later in June.
You can read up on this in more detail here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/concern-over-delta-covid-variant-tightens-borders-of-uk
Another excellent TWiV on SARS-CoV-2 origins
TWiV continues to interview people who have been at the center of investigations to determine the origin of SARS-CoV-2. They recently interviewed Dr. Robert Garry, someone who was an author on the paper last year that made the case for a natural origin as the most likely possibility. Dr. Garry has a long history of virus discovery, and brings that expertise to bear in this episode. Dr. Garry goes deeper than I can and with a more intimate knowledge of the facts. Listen to him:
What am I doing to cope with the pandemic? This:
Listening: The Apocalist Book Club
I wanted to share with you The Apocalist Book Club, which is a podcast wherein the hosts read through, in publication order, the history of apocalyptic speculative fiction.
Here’s one of several places you can find it: https://apocalistbookclub.libsyn.com
I’ve been listening to this podcast for a long time, because it is made by some friends of mine, and I really can’t believe that I haven’t recommended it before—I thought I had!
I really like the perspective of the hosts on these novels, many of which are real artifacts of times gone by and their contemporary fears of the future. It seems that about as long as there has been a world, people have been wondering what might happen if it ended. It’s really interesting to hear how people have envisioned that in the past, and also to get some pointers on which of these books are actually worth seeking out.
You might have some questions or comments! Send them in. As several folks have figured out, you can also email me if you have a comment that you don’t want to share with the whole group.
Join the conversation, and what you say will impact what I talk about in the next issue.
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Part of science is identifying and correcting errors. If you find a mistake, please tell me about it.
Though I can’t correct the emailed version after it has been sent, I do update the online post of the newsletter every time a mistake is brought to my attention.
No corrections since last issue.
See you all next time. And don’t forget to share the newsletter if you liked it.
Always,
JS
"However I don’t really understand what tightening incoming travel does when this concerning variant is already dominant. A lot of countries have made moves like this and they don’t make a lot of sense. Tightening borders won’t control what’s happening inside those borders very well at all, and the UK is still planning a wide reopening later in June."
Sure, you understand. The purpose is political. It lets the politicians pretend they're doing something useful, and as a second benefit appeals to the "Those brown people are dirty and impure" crowd.