Re: long COVID, just wanted to draw attention to NIH's ongoing study, RECOVER: https://recovercovid.org/. They're seeking volunteers for different cohorts: COVID-recovered with and without long COVID, as well as those never infected.
This may seem like a silly question, but in following a PhD nurse educator in the UK for some time, he says that the "sweet spot" if one must be exposed is up to 10 weeks post-booster as the efficacy wanes some from ~95% to ~83% at 10 weeks or so, and if one must be exposed that is the best time for it to happen.
I've been a hermit on lockdown since March 16th 2020 and have only gone out to vote, and to get vaccinated. No one goes in or out in my household and it's been rough. Masking locally isn't a thing here and vaccination rates are horrid.
If I got my Moderna booster on Dec. 10th and had plans to attend the Kansas "farewell tour" concert on Feb. 3rd and wear a non fit-tested N95, is it worth attending? Tickets are non-refundable, and the locals here generally do not mask and are "vaccine hesitant" but if we are all going to be exposed at some point, it seems like being 7 weeks post-booster might be the safest time. Thoughts?
The wide spread into deer populations does make me wonder a bit about the guidance that outdoor gatherings are generally relatively safe. I don't suppose deer are spending a lot of time at crowded bars and dance parties.
It's important to recognize that the upper airways of many animals are different from those of humans, as is just the overall biology of many of our fellow mammals. As an example, you can use mice to study influenza virus (to an extent), but you can't use them to study transmission. Their upper airways are too different from ours for that to work right. To study influenza virus transmission you have to use guinea pigs or ferrets, which have more similar nasal turbinates to those of humans. Sometimes very subtle differences between species can alter transmission dynamics.
Deer are very social creatures, and at the same time their understanding of basic hygiene, as I understand, leaves a lot to be desired.
It is entirely possible that deer transmit this virus to one another through a fecal-oral route, or from their habit of frequently touching nose-to-nose, or some other undiscovered mechanism.
On the other hand, I have no idea how it's actually happening! And I would very much like to know. There are animal health laboratories where this might actually be studied, so I am wondering if we will see some transmission work conducted using captive deer populations. I do think it's important.
Good to have you back. I know you aren't an epidemiologist, but I'm curious to hear your informal opinion on the idea that Omicron will "involuntarily vaccinate" many, many people who have refused vaccination with the safe, pharmaceutical versions. For one example, I'd expect that South Africa now has immunity equal to the USA because everyone (almost literally) in the country has now been exposed to, and likely infected with, actual active SARS-CoV-2.
I think if the Omicron variant, and its consequent reinfections of many previously-recovered people who had different variants, has taught us anything, it's that immunity generated by infection is a very poor safeguard against future immune-evasion mutants. It does not appear to generate sufficient protection to keep people safe.
Also, to get it, you have to get the very thing you are hoping it will prevent getting, but that's another matter.
Anyway, I don't think it will be a meaningful safeguard against whatever the next escape variant is, because immunity to Delta from a past bout of illness was not a meaningful safeguard against Omicron.
"The protection of a prior COVID-19 infection was on par or more effective than getting solely getting vaccinated during the delta surge, according to a new study done by New York health officials." The authors acknowledge weaknesses in their study, which gathered its data well before Omicron was widespread.
Re: long COVID, just wanted to draw attention to NIH's ongoing study, RECOVER: https://recovercovid.org/. They're seeking volunteers for different cohorts: COVID-recovered with and without long COVID, as well as those never infected.
thanks! have it (minor) now and just signed up; was hoping it would ask more than name, edress, and ZIP...
This may seem like a silly question, but in following a PhD nurse educator in the UK for some time, he says that the "sweet spot" if one must be exposed is up to 10 weeks post-booster as the efficacy wanes some from ~95% to ~83% at 10 weeks or so, and if one must be exposed that is the best time for it to happen.
I've been a hermit on lockdown since March 16th 2020 and have only gone out to vote, and to get vaccinated. No one goes in or out in my household and it's been rough. Masking locally isn't a thing here and vaccination rates are horrid.
If I got my Moderna booster on Dec. 10th and had plans to attend the Kansas "farewell tour" concert on Feb. 3rd and wear a non fit-tested N95, is it worth attending? Tickets are non-refundable, and the locals here generally do not mask and are "vaccine hesitant" but if we are all going to be exposed at some point, it seems like being 7 weeks post-booster might be the safest time. Thoughts?
The wide spread into deer populations does make me wonder a bit about the guidance that outdoor gatherings are generally relatively safe. I don't suppose deer are spending a lot of time at crowded bars and dance parties.
It's important to recognize that the upper airways of many animals are different from those of humans, as is just the overall biology of many of our fellow mammals. As an example, you can use mice to study influenza virus (to an extent), but you can't use them to study transmission. Their upper airways are too different from ours for that to work right. To study influenza virus transmission you have to use guinea pigs or ferrets, which have more similar nasal turbinates to those of humans. Sometimes very subtle differences between species can alter transmission dynamics.
Deer are very social creatures, and at the same time their understanding of basic hygiene, as I understand, leaves a lot to be desired.
It is entirely possible that deer transmit this virus to one another through a fecal-oral route, or from their habit of frequently touching nose-to-nose, or some other undiscovered mechanism.
On the other hand, I have no idea how it's actually happening! And I would very much like to know. There are animal health laboratories where this might actually be studied, so I am wondering if we will see some transmission work conducted using captive deer populations. I do think it's important.
Good to have you back. I know you aren't an epidemiologist, but I'm curious to hear your informal opinion on the idea that Omicron will "involuntarily vaccinate" many, many people who have refused vaccination with the safe, pharmaceutical versions. For one example, I'd expect that South Africa now has immunity equal to the USA because everyone (almost literally) in the country has now been exposed to, and likely infected with, actual active SARS-CoV-2.
I think if the Omicron variant, and its consequent reinfections of many previously-recovered people who had different variants, has taught us anything, it's that immunity generated by infection is a very poor safeguard against future immune-evasion mutants. It does not appear to generate sufficient protection to keep people safe.
Also, to get it, you have to get the very thing you are hoping it will prevent getting, but that's another matter.
Anyway, I don't think it will be a meaningful safeguard against whatever the next escape variant is, because immunity to Delta from a past bout of illness was not a meaningful safeguard against Omicron.
I'm not sure you can support that last statement. Do you know of any research that confirms it?
Also:
https://www.audacy.com/wcbs880/news/local/prior-infection-vax-give-best-protection-from-covid-study
"The protection of a prior COVID-19 infection was on par or more effective than getting solely getting vaccinated during the delta surge, according to a new study done by New York health officials." The authors acknowledge weaknesses in their study, which gathered its data well before Omicron was widespread.
Yes, there’s been data on this for a while. It was pretty clear early on in the UK that people with immunity due to prior infection were permissive hosts for the Omicron variant: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/
This has been recapitulated in other datasets, but I have more confidence in the UK data at this time.