COVID Transmissions for 10-7-2020

The local lockdowns

Oct 07, 2020

Good morning! It has been 325 days since the first documented human case of COVID-19.

With President Trump out of the hospital, the news cycle has shifted and his story is no longer one of COVID-19 biology. Until that changes, if it changes, we’ll stay off that story here.

As usual, bolded terms are linked to the running newsletter glossary.

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Now, let’s talk COVID.

New York suggests a return to limited lockdowns

Mayor Bill DeBlasio of New York City has suggested that certain zip codes where there have been spikes in COVID-19 should go back under lockdown. My understanding is that Governor Cuomo does not support this decision. I have not been following this story very closely, but I was asked by a reader to comment.

Specifically, I was asked whether localized lockdowns will make a big difference when people can just go to nearby places that are not under lockdown, taking the virus with them.

I think that this reader is probably correct that we will not fully contain these upticks with localized lockdown procedures. People will still go outside of their own neighborhoods, and they will take the virus with them to these other places. I am fond of saying that during a quarantine, there is no such thing as “fleeing,” there is only “taking the virus without somewhere else.”

On the other hand, communities tend to gather locally. Community centers are places where viruses can spread. The objective of a localized lockdown is not a complete quarantine of the area, but rather a reduction in the social transactions that are leading to transmission. I do think that a localized lockdown could accomplish such a reduction.

I do expect that there would be an effect of a localized lockdown. I don’t know if that effect would be sufficient to prevent the events that have already been set in motion, though.

GOOD NEWS: the pandemic has restored global trust in science

According to the 3M “State of Science” report, the global pandemic has led to a surge in the amount of trust placed in the scientific enterprise: https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/state-of-science-index-survey

I had never heard of this survey before, but I think it’s really cool! Something really interesting that I pulled out of is that 82% of those surveyed said that “there are negative consequences to a world that doesn’t value science.”

I think there has been a lot of disinformation and misinformation during this pandemic, particularly in the US. It’s nice to see that despite that, there is still an overall shift, globally, towards appreciating what scientific inquiry can do for us.

What am I doing to cope with the pandemic? This:

Watching

Recently I checked out a British show called Last Tango in Halifax. It’s a drama with some rather soapy elements, but it’s really got a lovely story at its core. It’s about two older people, once childhood sweethearts in an abortive romance, who reconnect after 60 years. It’s also about two families from very different walks of life that must learn to get along with each other, because these two main characters have entire lives that need to be integrated with one another.

I’m finding that shows like this, about community, family, and getting along are really appealing to me during the extended pandemic disruptions because they remind me that these things can still exist in a normal way, when this is all over.

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