4 Comments
Feb 11, 2021Liked by John Skylar, PhD

That figure of 263 times greater reduction in viral load daily seemed implausibly high. If baseline reduction is 1%, then with interferon, it would be over 100% reduction, or to zero, in one day. If baseline reduction is not as high as 1%, placebo patients would need many months to recover. I'm also dubious about measuring daily reduction in viral genome count, because the underlying assumption there is that this number is constant, and it shouldn't be. As the immune system responds, it would start fairly low, but the rate would naturally increase as B-cells start pouring out antibodies and T-killer cells start multiplying.

I then searched the Lancet paper, and the number 263 does not appear in it. Typo?

The mask recommendations are missing a key thing: ratings for non-medical masks. I can buy any of a hundred "medical style" masks that look like surgical masks, but without actual regulated testing, I have no way to know their actual filtration ability, and without different testing I have no way to know how likely they are to fit tightly. Creating a rating system for this purpose would be one of the best things the FDA (or WHO) could do, in my opinion.

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