Possible way to make up for lost vaccine capacity if J&J (and AZ) become unusable: move EU and USA resources to support manufacture of the Novavax and CureVac vaccines. Both seem to have the high effectiveness of the Moderna and Pfizer entries and neither uses the adenovirus carrier that the AZ and J&J vaccines do.
Obviously, easier said than done, and you're right that the actual danger from the adenovirus-based vaccines is not really demonstrated, but ... people are not rational actors. Look at Australia, which has already stated a policy of not using adenovirus-based vaccines.
I've certainly heard substantially worse ideas than this over the past few days, but retooling to make a different vaccine might take weeks that we don't have. I'm not sure. It's not easy to recertify manufacturing facilities for biologics, and we've seen what mixups in that setting can lead to with the recent 15 million-dose goof at the Emergent Biosciences operation.
Oh, it would not be a 1:1 replacement. The process for making Novavax is wildly different--it's a protein from moth cells vs. viruses that replicate in mammalian cells, it's a protein vs. a modified virus, meaning the purification process would be unrelated, etc. I just meant to give Novavax a priority line on resources.
Curevac is an mRNA vaccine, so that's even less related.
Yeah, exactly. By the time either of these vaccines can be spun up to the production levels from adding resources to their supply chain, I think this situation with J&J will either be fully resolved, or Pfizer and Moderna supplies will have entire filled the gap.
That said, in the long run for the global health equation, the more vaccines that get made, the better.
My only difference from that: Pfizer and Moderna can supply the USA, sure. Who's going to supply Africa, South America, Indonesia, etc.? Nobody trusts Chinese and Russian vaccines, with good reason.
Yeah, that’s a huge issue. I’m planning to tackle that when we have more information about a way forward for the J&J vaccine, but it looks like Novavax might be the best replacement option if the two vectored ones don’t stay available in the rest of the world.
Possible way to make up for lost vaccine capacity if J&J (and AZ) become unusable: move EU and USA resources to support manufacture of the Novavax and CureVac vaccines. Both seem to have the high effectiveness of the Moderna and Pfizer entries and neither uses the adenovirus carrier that the AZ and J&J vaccines do.
Obviously, easier said than done, and you're right that the actual danger from the adenovirus-based vaccines is not really demonstrated, but ... people are not rational actors. Look at Australia, which has already stated a policy of not using adenovirus-based vaccines.
I've certainly heard substantially worse ideas than this over the past few days, but retooling to make a different vaccine might take weeks that we don't have. I'm not sure. It's not easy to recertify manufacturing facilities for biologics, and we've seen what mixups in that setting can lead to with the recent 15 million-dose goof at the Emergent Biosciences operation.
Oh, it would not be a 1:1 replacement. The process for making Novavax is wildly different--it's a protein from moth cells vs. viruses that replicate in mammalian cells, it's a protein vs. a modified virus, meaning the purification process would be unrelated, etc. I just meant to give Novavax a priority line on resources.
Curevac is an mRNA vaccine, so that's even less related.
Yeah, exactly. By the time either of these vaccines can be spun up to the production levels from adding resources to their supply chain, I think this situation with J&J will either be fully resolved, or Pfizer and Moderna supplies will have entire filled the gap.
That said, in the long run for the global health equation, the more vaccines that get made, the better.
My only difference from that: Pfizer and Moderna can supply the USA, sure. Who's going to supply Africa, South America, Indonesia, etc.? Nobody trusts Chinese and Russian vaccines, with good reason.
Yeah, that’s a huge issue. I’m planning to tackle that when we have more information about a way forward for the J&J vaccine, but it looks like Novavax might be the best replacement option if the two vectored ones don’t stay available in the rest of the world.