"This could be a tipping point, of sorts, in the history of this disease. The US hosts the most active COVID-19 cases of any country in the world, so if new cases are being dominated by this variant, I think it is a good bet that B.1.1.7 will eventually become the globally dominant variant if it is not already."
What about P.1 and B.1.351? Are they less contagious than B.1.1.7 to such an extent that they will be outcompeted?
To the best of my knowledge, B.1.351 is not very efficient at spreading. I am not as sure about P1. I am planning to cover some variant stories on the 14th, and I'll try to give you a better answer on this at that time.
I do not blame you for not taking Cuomo at this word. Unfortunately, his is not the only state government making such claims. Here are links to the official vaccination pages of New Jersey, California and Texas (I picked these three as New Jersey is next to New York, and California and Texas have large populations - not a very scientific approach, admittedly):
Whether these states are suffering from a lack of supply or a lack of distribution capacity, it seems clear that there is a serious issue related to getting vaccines into arms that has nothing to do with how many people are eligible.
I am puzzled by the focus on increasing the portion of the population that is eligible to be vaccinated. What does adjusting eligibility affect, on a practical level? Shouldn't the focus be on the availability of doses and the effectiveness of distribution?
Your framing reverses cause and effect. Eligible population size is being increased because we have the supply available now, not the other way around.
If that were true, we would be out of vaccine in New York. I have not heard of any eligible person arriving at a New York State or City facility and being told that the facility has run out of vaccine.
What have you heard about the level of difficulty experienced by eligible people getting an appointment in the first place? Are you saying that Cuomo's official statement from three days ago is not true? Please note how most locations in New York State do not have any appointments available:
There are only so many hours in a day and so much capacity. New York may be able to distribute vaccines but how much capacity do we actually have for getting vaccine doses into people? I'm really skeptical that what Cuomo said is accurate. He has made incredibly overblown claims of supply issues in the past that turned out to be totally untrue in the long run (for example his requests for tens of thousands of ventilators early in the pandemic FAR overshot the need and supply for that equipment in New York). Given his past cries of wolf, along with his and his staff's misrepresentations of data regarding patients discharged to LTC facilities, yes, I do seriously doubt the truth of anything he says regarding logistics.
"This could be a tipping point, of sorts, in the history of this disease. The US hosts the most active COVID-19 cases of any country in the world, so if new cases are being dominated by this variant, I think it is a good bet that B.1.1.7 will eventually become the globally dominant variant if it is not already."
What about P.1 and B.1.351? Are they less contagious than B.1.1.7 to such an extent that they will be outcompeted?
To the best of my knowledge, B.1.351 is not very efficient at spreading. I am not as sure about P1. I am planning to cover some variant stories on the 14th, and I'll try to give you a better answer on this at that time.
I do not blame you for not taking Cuomo at this word. Unfortunately, his is not the only state government making such claims. Here are links to the official vaccination pages of New Jersey, California and Texas (I picked these three as New Jersey is next to New York, and California and Texas have large populations - not a very scientific approach, admittedly):
https://covid19.nj.gov/pages/finder
https://myturn.ca.gov/
https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/immunize/vaccine-hubs.aspx
Whether these states are suffering from a lack of supply or a lack of distribution capacity, it seems clear that there is a serious issue related to getting vaccines into arms that has nothing to do with how many people are eligible.
I am puzzled by the focus on increasing the portion of the population that is eligible to be vaccinated. What does adjusting eligibility affect, on a practical level? Shouldn't the focus be on the availability of doses and the effectiveness of distribution?
Your framing reverses cause and effect. Eligible population size is being increased because we have the supply available now, not the other way around.
Not according to Governor Cuomo:
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-announces-more-105-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-new
"New York's vast distribution network and large population of eligible individuals still far exceed the supply coming from the federal government."
If that were true, we would be out of vaccine in New York. I have not heard of any eligible person arriving at a New York State or City facility and being told that the facility has run out of vaccine.
What have you heard about the level of difficulty experienced by eligible people getting an appointment in the first place? Are you saying that Cuomo's official statement from three days ago is not true? Please note how most locations in New York State do not have any appointments available:
https://am-i-eligible.covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/#_blank
There are only so many hours in a day and so much capacity. New York may be able to distribute vaccines but how much capacity do we actually have for getting vaccine doses into people? I'm really skeptical that what Cuomo said is accurate. He has made incredibly overblown claims of supply issues in the past that turned out to be totally untrue in the long run (for example his requests for tens of thousands of ventilators early in the pandemic FAR overshot the need and supply for that equipment in New York). Given his past cries of wolf, along with his and his staff's misrepresentations of data regarding patients discharged to LTC facilities, yes, I do seriously doubt the truth of anything he says regarding logistics.
"... I do seriously doubt the truth of anything he says regarding logistics."
Remove the last two words, and the statement is just as valid (for me, not necessarily for John).