Hmm. I guess I'm not as worried about the "4.4% for at least 28 days" number as you are, because when I compare to the flu, there have been years where there was a bad flu circulating around and anecdotally it sure seemed like at least one out of twenty kids I knew who got the flu was still not feeling great 3-4 weeks later.
The 56 day number is rather more concerning, though! Two months seems like a long time for a kid to be sick, and going back to the flu analogy, I don't think I've ever seen a kid who was sick for two months from the flu (and there are enough kids in our school/other communities that odds are, if this were common at the 2% rate, I feel like I would have heard about it).
I keep seeing that Lancet study described on social media as "reassuring," indicating that long COVID is "rare" in kids, even by people I respect. Of course, it's neither of those things, for reasons well articulated by you. Under normal circumstances, seeing a parent willingly subject their kid to a one-in-fifty chance of permanent injury would warrant a call to Child Protective Services.
I do wonder, though, if the apparently low incidence of post-acute symptoms in children relative to adults tells us anything about the mechanism(s) underlying long COVID. Certain autoimmune conditions are less common in children. And children may be less likely to harbor dormant viruses that could perhaps be reactivated by SARS-CoV-2 infection.
1. Based on your readings of Covid in children, if a 5 year old tests postive for Covid and is asymptomatic, what is the chance of later illness? How long after the positive result is the child safe to travel?
2. In a breakthrough case in a 67 year old adult with mild symptoms, would you recommend monoclonal treatment as an extra precaution?
The Scientist tracks all known vaccine candidates.
Scary stuff in there, for me. Many (many!) Chinese and Russian vaccines have entries like this one: "Clinical testing was completed by the end of September, according to Reuters. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced its approval ahead of a Phase 3 trial, NPR reports, and on November 30, Reuters reported that the country will begin mass vaccinations." (Russian "Vector" vaccine.) There are several vaccines being administered widely, not just in those two countries, that have not actually had a Phase 3 trial.
It's scary because people who think they're protected (even though there is no way to know if that's the case) will act as if they're safe, increasing the spread. No distancing, no masks--they're vaccinated, after all.
Hmm. I guess I'm not as worried about the "4.4% for at least 28 days" number as you are, because when I compare to the flu, there have been years where there was a bad flu circulating around and anecdotally it sure seemed like at least one out of twenty kids I knew who got the flu was still not feeling great 3-4 weeks later.
The 56 day number is rather more concerning, though! Two months seems like a long time for a kid to be sick, and going back to the flu analogy, I don't think I've ever seen a kid who was sick for two months from the flu (and there are enough kids in our school/other communities that odds are, if this were common at the 2% rate, I feel like I would have heard about it).
I keep seeing that Lancet study described on social media as "reassuring," indicating that long COVID is "rare" in kids, even by people I respect. Of course, it's neither of those things, for reasons well articulated by you. Under normal circumstances, seeing a parent willingly subject their kid to a one-in-fifty chance of permanent injury would warrant a call to Child Protective Services.
I do wonder, though, if the apparently low incidence of post-acute symptoms in children relative to adults tells us anything about the mechanism(s) underlying long COVID. Certain autoimmune conditions are less common in children. And children may be less likely to harbor dormant viruses that could perhaps be reactivated by SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Lisa Schwartz just now
Hi John,
Two questions:
1. Based on your readings of Covid in children, if a 5 year old tests postive for Covid and is asymptomatic, what is the chance of later illness? How long after the positive result is the child safe to travel?
2. In a breakthrough case in a 67 year old adult with mild symptoms, would you recommend monoclonal treatment as an extra precaution?
Thank you!!!
Lisa
Hi, John,
I though this resource might be interesting to you:
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/track-covid-19-vaccines-advancing-through-clinical-trials-67382
The Scientist tracks all known vaccine candidates.
Scary stuff in there, for me. Many (many!) Chinese and Russian vaccines have entries like this one: "Clinical testing was completed by the end of September, according to Reuters. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced its approval ahead of a Phase 3 trial, NPR reports, and on November 30, Reuters reported that the country will begin mass vaccinations." (Russian "Vector" vaccine.) There are several vaccines being administered widely, not just in those two countries, that have not actually had a Phase 3 trial.
It's scary because people who think they're protected (even though there is no way to know if that's the case) will act as if they're safe, increasing the spread. No distancing, no masks--they're vaccinated, after all.